Macro Morning Note - Monday, August 3, 2026
Top Call: This is a hawkish-Fed, higher-for-longer tape . September is live for a hike, not a cut. The single thing to keep front of mind: the Warsh Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on July 29 but voted 9-3, with three members favoring a quarter-point rate hike the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented with a unified view. The central bank hinted at a possible hike at its next meeting in September. With the July jobs report due August 7 and CPI on August 12, we get the two prints that decide whether September is a genuine hike. Position for asymmetry: a hot number reprices the front end and hits duration/growth hard; a soft one only gets you back to "extended hold." We are not in an easing regime trade the tape accordingly.(via CNBC)
Overnight / Pre-Market US futures firmer on cheaper oil. S&P 500 futures up ~0.6%; Dow futures +350pts as oil prices slide into the new week a marginal relief on the energy-led inflation story. Our take: constructive, but fragile; the driver is oil, not a change in the rate picture.
Rates remain the pressure point. 10Y Treasury yields hover near 4.7%–4.8% as the Fed talks tough on inflation, keeping mortgage rates near a one-year high. This is the lever that's been compressing long-duration/AI-infra multiples.
AI-infra / semis still the high-beta valve. July's damage was concentrated here: the Nasdaq declined 3.2% for July even as the Dow edged up 0.3% for its fourth straight monthly gain. Late-month saw a global semis rout (SK Hynix and Samsung down double digits, Micron/Nvidia/AMD lower). Watch for follow-through, this is where a rates shock shows up first.
Asia mixed, Japan soft. Korea's Kospi slid ~4.8% early and Toyota fell more than 5% ahead of a fifth straight quarterly profit decline; Hong Kong bucked it (Alibaba +3.4%, Baidu +2.8%).
Sentiment: better, still squeezed. Michigan confidence at a five-month high of 55.2, but one-year inflation expectations at 4.2% households aren't signaling that inflation is beaten.
Key Events This Week Today (Mon): ISM Manufacturing (July), S&P Global PMI Mfg final, Construction Spending; earnings incl. Palantir, Vertex, ON Semi, Diamondback, Marriott. ISM is the first read on whether tariffs/energy are feeding into input prices — watch the prices-paid subindex.
Tue: Q2 productivity & unit labor costs; earnings incl. The Trade Desk, Airbnb, Datadog, ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy. Unit labor costs matter more than usual given the hawkish setup.
Fri - the main event: July Nonfarm Payrolls and average hourly earnings. This is the swing factor for the September FOMC. Volatility is expected.
Backdrop: next FOMC is September 15–16, with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections; August/September are seasonally weak and midterms are approaching. Kiplinger
Positioning / Trade Ideas Fade duration-heavy growth into the jobs + CPI double-header. With 10Y near 4.8% and a Fed openly debating hikes, the risk/reward on long-duration AI-infrastructure and unprofitable-growth names is poor over the next two weeks. Risk to the view: a soft payrolls print (Fri) re-rates the whole complex higher fast this cohort is oversold after a -3.2% Nasdaq month. Energy as the inflation hedge, but respect today's oil slide. The whole hawkish narrative rests on oil having topped $100 on U.S.–Iran tensions; energy remains the cleanest hedge if that re-escalates, but this morning's pullback is a near-term headwind to the trade.
Quality/cash-generative over story stocks. In a "no cuts, maybe hikes" world, the market pays for real free cash flow, not terminal-value promises a screen worth running across your coverage.
Bottom line: nothing overnight changes the regime hawkish Fed, sticky energy-driven inflation, rates the binding constraint. Stay up in-quality and keep powder dry into Friday's payrolls; that print, then Aug 12 CPI, sets the September tone.
Sources: CNBC, Trading Economics, Simply Wall St, Chase/JPM, Forbes, Kiplinger Analyst : Anastasis Zoyganelis
Informational and educational only; not investment advice. See disclaimer.